LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) — The United States and Iran plunged
back into negotiation Sunday, hoping to end once and for all a
decades-long standoff that has raised the specter of an Iranian nuclear
arsenal, a new atomic arms race in the Middle East and even a U.S. or
Israeli military intervention. Two weeks out from a deadline for a
framework accord, some officials said the awesomeness of the diplomatic
task meant negotiators would likely settle for an announcement that
they've made enough progress to justify further talks.
Such a declaration would hardly satisfy American critics of the Obama
administration's diplomatic outreach to Iran and hardliners in the
Islamic Republic, whose rumblings have grown more vociferous and
threatening as the parties have narrowed many of their differences. And,
officially, the United States and its partners insist their eyes are on
a much bigger prize: "A deal that would protect the world," Secretary
of State John Kerry emphasized this weekend, "from the threat that a
nuclear-armed Iran could pose."
Yet as Kerry arrived in Switzerland for several days of discussions with
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, no one was promising the
breakthrough. One diplomat said new differences surfaced only in the
last negotiating round of what has been a 15-month process, including a
sudden Iranian demand that a nuclear facility buried deep underground be
allowed to keep hundreds of centrifuges that are used for enriching
uranium — material that can be used in a nuclear warhead. Previously,
the Iranians had accepted the plant would be transformed into one solely
for scientific research, that diplomat and others have said.
The deal that had been taking shape would see Iran freeze its nuclear
program for at least a decade, with restrictions then gradually lifted
over a period of perhaps the following five years. Washington and other
world powers would similarly scale back sanctions that have crippled the
Iranian economy in several phases. Iran says it is only interested in
peaceful energy generation and medical research, but much of the world
has suspected it of maintaining covert nuclear weapons ambitions. And
the U.S. and its ally Israel have at various times threatened military
action if Iran's program advances too far.
Speaking Sunday on CBS News, Kerry said most of the differences between
Iran and the negotiating group of the U.S., Britain, China, France,
Germany and Russia were "political," not technical. He didn't elaborate,
but political matters tend to include levels of inspections, Iran's
past military work linked to its nuclear program and how quickly to
scale back sanctions. Technical matters refer, for example, to how many
centrifuges Iran can maintain, what types of those machines and how much
plutonium it would be allowed to produce from a planned heavy water
reactor.
Less than four months ago, senior officials talked optimistically about
reaching a preliminary agreement by March, with three months of
additional talks only for any remaining technical work. Back then,
British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said he expected "an agreement
on substance" by March 31. Top Western and Iranian negotiators issued a
joint statement vowing to use the time until June 30 only "if necessary
... to finalize any possible remaining technical and drafting work."
But two diplomats said ahead of this week's talks in the Swiss city of
Lausanne that persistent differences at the negotiating table had
diminished the chances of such a substantial agreement. Instead, they
said, the sides were more likely to restrict themselves to a vague oral
statement indicating that enough headway had been made to continue
negotiations. They weren't authorized to speak publicly about the
sensitive talks and demanded anonymity.
A senior U.S. official rejected that assessment. "We are working toward a
framework of substance," said the official, who spoke on condition of
anonymity citing similar constraints. Top diplomats and technical
experts from the U.S. and Iran met Sunday. Kerry and Zarif were to hold
their first discussion Monday.
Anything short of a written agreement will only encourage congressional
critics of the Iran diplomacy, who've seized on various pieces that have
leaked from the negotiation to press their case that the Obama
administration is conceding too much. Republicans and some Democrats
believe a deal would be insufficient and unenforceable, allowing Iran to
eventually become a nuclear-armed state. And to that end, they've made a
series of proposals to undercut or block an agreement, from requiring
Senate say-so on a deal to ordering new sanctions against Iran while
negotiations are ongoing.
Last week, 47 of the Senate's 54 Republicans signed an open letter to
Iran's leaders warning that any nuclear pact they cut with President
Barack Obama could expire the day he leaves office. The action prompted
fierce criticism from top administration officials, who declared it an
unprecedented interference in the president's conduct of U.S. foreign
policy.
Appearing on CNN, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defended the
letter Sunday, accusing Democrats of selective outrage and predicting
the emergence of a "very bad" nuclear deal. Its author, freshman Sen.
Tom Cotton of Arkansas added that he had no regrets, saying the blowback
only underscored that Obama wasn't negotiating for "the hardest deal
possible."
In his interview, Kerry said Tehran "to its credit" has entirely lived up to an interim agreement reached in November 2013.
But that understanding was only a stopgap measure, not doing nearly
enough to satisfy the long-term concerns of Israel or Iran's Sunni Arab
rivals in the Middle East, or the United States. Experts say the
combination of limits on Iran's uranium program only gives the world two
to three months to react if the country tries to surreptitiously "break
out" toward nuclear weapons development. The U.S. says it needs at
least a year of cushion time, lasting for at least a decade, in a
comprehensive agreement.
It's unclear if negotiators will reach that point, putting the United
States in a difficult spot. Fearful Iran could be playing for time,
Obama, Kerry and various officials have vowed to walk away from the
talks if they show no sign of pointing toward a satisfactory agreement.
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